How Climate Change Is Impacting Coffee: Why Prices Will Keep Rising and Quality Will Keep Falling

If you are a coffee enthusiast like my friend Javier, you probably have strong opinions about your cup of coffee. How great coffee is supposed to taste, and how shitty coffee ruins the whole moment.

But for Javier, and millions of other coffee drinkers, that cup of coffee is facing a growing crisis.

The impact of climate change on coffee is making it more expensive and lowering its quality.

The Two Coffee Species at Risk from Climate Change

Global coffee production centers around two species: Coffea arabica (Arabica) and Coffea canephora (Robusta). Arabica delivers the flavors that dominate cafes across Europe and North America, accounting for about 60% of production. Robusta, which makes up the remaining 40%, is hardier but less prized for its taste. Both Arabica and Robusta are highly sensitive to their environment. And that is where the trouble begins.

Arabica: The fragile coffee crop facing climate pressure

Arabica thrives in cool, stable climates, often at higher elevations. Even slight temperature rises threaten yields, bean quality, and resistance to diseases such as coffee leaf rust and pests like the coffee berry borer.

Multiple studies project that by 2050, up to 50% of today’s suitable coffee land may become unfit for cultivation. In regions like Ethiopia, Nicaragua, and parts of East Africa, losses could reach as high as 90% by the end of the century.

Robusta is more heat-tolerant but not immune

While Robusta handles heat slightly better, it remains vulnerable to temperature swings and drought. As suitable growing zones shift to higher altitudes, coffee farming risks encroaching on forests and protected ecosystems, raising new environmental concerns.

Currently, the most suitable regions (S1) for Arabica coffee production are located in Central and South America (especially Brazil), Central and West Africa, and parts of South and Southeast Asia. Coffee cultivation depends on a narrow range of climate and soil conditions. Factors such as high temperatures, long dry seasons, cold minimum temperatures, and poor soil quality limit where coffee can grow. Even in major producing countries like Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia, different regions face distinct climate constraints that affect coffee suitability (from Grüter et al. 2022).

By 2050, climate change will sharply reduce the amount of land suitable for Arabica coffee production. The most ideal growing areas (S1) are projected to shrink by over 50% worldwide under all climate scenarios. Moderately suitable regions (S2) will also decline by 31% to 41% depending on emission levels. In major coffee-producing countries like Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia, highly suitable areas could drop by as much as 97%. Warmer temperatures are the main factor driving these losses, while some cooler regions may see slight gains as temperatures rise (from Grüter et al. 2022).

The Climate Change Coffee Impact on Smallholder Farmers

Roughly 60% of global coffee comes from smallholder farmers, many managing plots smaller than 5 hectares. For these farmers, coffee is not simply income; it is survival. They are already facing the front lines of climate impacts, from erratic rainfall and heat waves to soil degradation and rising costs.

At the same time, global coffee demand continues to rise. Since 2010, consumption has grown by more than 20%. Demand is increasing while available land is shrinking. The gap is widening.

Coffee Companies Are Slow to Adapt to Climate Change

One might expect climate adaptation to dominate corporate strategy discussions. Yet many major coffee companies still avoid addressing the full scale of the challenge.

Company sustainability reports often focus on packaging and recycling while sidestepping the more difficult questions of farm-level adaptation.

This is a dangerous oversight. Coffee trees take years to mature. Decisions made now determine future vulnerability. Without serious action, supply chain disruptions are not a distant threat. They are an immediate risk.

The Genetic Weakness of Commercial Coffee Varieties

Part of coffee’s vulnerability lies in its genetic narrowness. Most commercial varieties have been bred for high yields rather than resilience. As climate variability intensifies, this limited genetic base leaves plantations dangerously exposed to heat stress, pests, and extreme weather.

Proven Solutions to Make Coffee Farms More Climate Resilient

This challenge is not without solutions. Many are already in use.

• Agroforestry systems, where coffee grows beneath shade trees, can buffer heat, preserve biodiversity, and store additional carbon.

• Smarter fertilizer management can maintain yields while reducing emissions and cutting costs.

• Efficient irrigation, modernized drying systems, and improved pest control offer further ways to build resilience.

  
  

However, scaling these solutions requires more than good intentions. Farmers need investment, infrastructure, and better data.

Most of the world’s coffee is grown on small farms. About 95% of farms are under 5 hectares and mainly depend on family labor. But there are large differences in how farms operate. Some small farms use high amounts of fertilizers and other inputs, while others rely on low-input, more traditional practices. Medium and large farms generally use more inputs and machinery, with the largest estates focusing heavily on maximizing yields. These differences in size, resources, and management affect how easily farmers can adopt regenerative practices (from Pulleman et al., 2023).

Why Coffee Supply Chains Need Better Climate Data

Without measurement, meaningful management is impossible.

Land suitability models, climate forecasts, and life cycle assessments can identify where vulnerabilities exist and where interventions will have the greatest impact.

For traders, roasters, and retailers, investing in these insights is not only responsible but strategic. It safeguards supply stability, protects quality, and ensures competitiveness in a rapidly shifting market.

Climate Change and Coffee: The Urgent Call to Act

The question is not whether climate change will disrupt coffee. It already is. The real question is how quickly the entire value chain is prepared to act.

For those ready to rethink how sustainability is done, from farm to roastery, the time to begin is now.

The Future of Coffee Depends on Better Decisions

Climate risks are already reshaping coffee production. The question is whether supply chains are ready. We work with farmers, roasters, and traders to turn climate data into real-world decisions that protect both quality and profitability.

Curious how we help? Let’s talk.